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Figma just dropped its Q3 2025 numbers, and the headline is clear: they've crossed the $1 billion annual revenue run rate. CEO Dylan Field is talking up AI, claiming it's "redefining how software gets built." The CFO, Praveer Melwani, is highlighting the 38% year-over-year growth and pointing to Figma Make adoption as a key driver. All sounds great, right? Well, let's dig a bit deeper than the press release.
The AI Hype Train
The core narrative is that AI is fueling Figma's growth, specifically through products like Figma Make and their MCP server. They're even partnering with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT. The claim is that these AI tools are expanding Figma's reach to new teams and audiences. But here's where the data gets interesting.
Figma reports that approximately 30% of paid customers spending $100,000 or more in ARR are using Figma Make weekly. That's a decent adoption rate, but it also means 70% aren't. Are we sure AI is the primary growth engine, or is it simply a shiny new toy for a subset of their user base? And what about the other users? What are the non-early adopters doing, and how is Figma planning to convert them? Maybe it's the 131% Net Dollar Retention Rate that's doing the heavy lifting here.
The narrative feels a bit forced. It's like saying the new paint job on a car is responsible for its increased sales, while ignoring the fact that the engine got a major upgrade (the core design platform).
This is where I start to question the methodology of the AI claim. How is Figma attributing revenue specifically to AI features? Are they tracking user behavior within Make? Are they surveying customers? The lack of granularity in the reporting makes it difficult to validate the claim. Perhaps they need to introduce a new reporting metric to clearly show what revenue is coming from AI-powered products.
Retention vs. Acquisition: The Real Story?
Here's another angle: Figma's net dollar retention rate for customers with ARR of $10,000 or more is 131%. That's up 2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter. This means existing customers are spending significantly more. However, as the linked article from earlier this year shows, that number was decelerating in back-to-back quarters. Has the decline been reversed?
And then there's customer acquisition. Figma added over 1,000 paid customers with more than $10,000 in ARR and over 140 paid customers with more than $100,000 in ARR in Q3. Solid numbers, no doubt, but how does this compare to previous quarters? The press release doesn't say. It's convenient to highlight growth without providing the full context of the trend. A more transparent comparison would be valuable here. According to the Figma Announces Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results, the company is still experiencing strong growth.
(And this is the part of the report that I find genuinely puzzling. Why not provide the previous quarter's acquisition numbers for comparison? Are they hiding a slowdown in new customer growth? Or is this just standard corporate obfuscation?)
The company also highlights the acquisition of Weavy, a platform focused on generative AI and editing tools. This seems like a clear play to bolster their AI capabilities. But how will Weavy be integrated into the existing Figma ecosystem? Will it be a seamless transition, or will it create a fragmented user experience?
Figma is forecasting revenue between $292.0 million and $294.0 million for Q4 2025, implying 35% year-over-year growth. For the full year, they're projecting revenue between $1.044 billion and $1.046 billion, implying 40% year-over-year growth. These are strong numbers, but they also suggest a slight deceleration in growth rate in Q4 - about 5% slower than Q3, to be exact. Is this deceleration a sign that the AI hype is wearing off, or is it simply a natural plateau in their growth trajectory?
The claim that "AI is redefining how software gets built" sounds like a classic case of a company trying to align itself with the latest tech trend. It's like saying a hammer is redefining architecture because it's used to build houses. AI is a tool, and Figma is leveraging it, but let's not mistake the tool for the architect.
The AI Narrative Needs More Than Hype
Figma's Q3 numbers are undeniably strong, but the emphasis on AI as the sole driver of growth feels overstated. The company needs to provide more granular data to support this claim. Until then, it's wise to remain cautiously skeptical and focus on the underlying fundamentals: customer retention, acquisition, and the overall health of their core design platform.